Fundos de Investimento ( Mutual Funds - SICAV )

[CashKing 4]

Brazil - looks cheap?

[CashKing 4]

A perfect bear market rally may have just concluded. It was set up by oversold conditions and underpinned by a plethora of policy measures from central banks and authorities and by rebalancing of pooled portfolios needing to buy equities to revamp the allocation. Smart money likely sold equities into the final hours of the quarter-end and to us it looks like another leg lower in equities could be coming now. link

[CashKing 4]

Refinitiv Lipper Fund Flow Report Newsline

Fund Flow Reports For The Week Ended 04/01 Are Now Available.

For the week ended 04/01/2020 ExETFs - All Equity funds report net inflows totaling $6.528 billion, with Domestic Equity funds reporting net inflows of $6.304 billion and Non-Domestic Equity funds reporting net inflows of $0.224 billion...ExETFs - Emerging Markets Equity funds report net outflows of -$0.683 billion...Net outflows are reported for All Taxable Bond funds of -$9.194 billion, bringing the rate of outflows for the $2.907 trillion sector to -$34.581 billion/week...International & Global Debt funds posted net outflows of -$0.787 billion...Net outflows of -$8.467 billion were reported for Corp-Investment Grade funds while High Yield funds reported net inflows of $7.092 billion...Money Market funds reported net inflows of $163.977 billion...ExETFs - Municipal Bond funds report net outflows of -$0.725 billion.                                                                                                                             

 

Recent Newsline Articles

Report Period	Date	Link Source
Weekly	04/01/2020	Equity Fund Inflows $3.9 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$9.2 Bil xETFs - Equity Fund Inflows $6.5 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$17.8 Bil
Weekly	03/25/2020	Equity Fund Outflows -$27.1 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$62 Bil xETFs - Equity Fund Outflows -$16.3 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$53.9 Bil
Weekly	03/18/2020	Equity Fund Outflows -$14.8 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$55.9 Bil xETFs - Equity Fund Outflows -$16.7 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$42.7 Bil
Weekly	03/11/2020	Equity Fund Outflows -$4.2 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$11.2 Bil xETFs - Equity Fund Outflows -$3.2 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$11.9 Bil
Weekly	03/04/2020	Equity Fund Outflows -$20.3 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$8.9 Bil xETFs - Equity Fund Outflows -$11.3 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$11.6 Bil

[CashKing 4]

Green Monday?

Weekend Wall Street

[CashKing 4]

Morgan Stanley Cross-Asset Sunday call: next 2 weeks will be more tactically challenging

1. we are past the beneficial flows around month-end re-balancing

2. sees potential for renewed funds outflows cross-asset

3. we are past peak market uncertainty but not past peak macro uncertainty

4. earnings seasons will be downbeat

5. US covid news will continue to get worse; coasts still 1-2 weeks to peak; rest of US >40 days left to peak

MS Sunday cross-asset conf call

[CashKing 4]

the power of Lump Sum investing over DCA

Time is your most important asset as a person and as an investor.  Don’t waste it on the sidelines.

[CashKing 4]

Everyone thinks they’re a genius in a bull market, but it’s only when prices head south that some people really stand out from the crowd.

Trying to pick the bottom of a bear market is even more hazardous to your wealth. Being what seems like a long way from the top doesn’t mean you aren’t still just as far from the bottom: A market that has lost half of its value is one that lost a jarring 30% and then another 30% after that.

If you believe that the damage the Covid-19 pandemic does to the global economy will be on par with the financial crisis and plan to wait until stock valuations reflect that view, you will have to wait. To fetch a similar valuation, stocks might have to drop another 40% or so from here, leaving the Dow Jones Industrial Average below 15000. good read

[CashKing 4]

Wall Street looks for light at end of tunnel, sees risk stocks will re-test lows

Here is a roundup of some analyst and investor views from the past few days: link

[superkinas 181]

Aqui a grande duvida é se fará novo fundo seja menor ou até maior.

Na Europa o pior já passou, ainda é critico mas talvez já se observe uma luz no fim tunel

a america está a entrar agora na fase mais critica.

 

[CashKing 4]

[CashKing 4]

Where are we in the bad news/good news cycle?

[CashKing 4]

The Anatomy of Market Tops

There’s no formula for forecasting market tops because you’re really trying to predict human behavior, which can’t be done. Trees don’t grow to the sky, but that doesn’t make it any easier for investors to guess when the inevitable mean reversion trade will kick in. Fundamentals matter over the very long term, but in the short-to-intermediate-term, the stock market is a confidence game. The market will top out and experience a bear market when investors lose their nerve for some reason.

 

Why Valuations Don’t Always Matter in a Bear Market

I’m sure many investors look at the valuations seen in the 1930s or 1980s and salivate at the potential to buy stocks that cheaply again during the current bear market.

It could happen. Never say never when it comes to the markets.

But the profile of a bottom in the stock market is just as confusing as a top.

Investing would be easier if you could simply buy at predetermined valuation or interest rate levels and sell at other predetermined levels. The real world doesn’t work like that.

In the past markets have bottomed at relatively low valuation levels, making investing look easy. But they’ve also bottomed when valuations are relatively high.

The chart below shows the experience of six different investors, who for the sake of simplicity, invested $100 a month into the S&P 500 at different starting dates. link

[Visitante Sapo]

Isto é um forum ou um feed de noticias, acho q o cash está a exagerar um bocado..

Uma coisa é um link para um artigo que complemente um comentário ou uma resposta, agora isto...

[DMP 30]

há 16 horas, CashKing disse:

Brazil - looks cheap?

Bedrock, és tu? ?

[CashKing 4]

GS Asia: this is a bounce, not a bottom

The MXAPJ index rallied 13% in 6 trading days after falling 32% from its mid-January high, raising concern on whether regional markets have bottomed. We think not.

1. Bear market rallies are common.

2. Conditions for a trough do not appear fully in place.

3. Cutting earnings further on worse US/global growth.

4. Markets have not fully priced the fundamental effects of the virus outbreak. Valuations have compressed but are not at distressed levels.

JPM: keep fading the relief bounces,

Looking for new lows

1) On growth, we worry that typical recessionary negative feedback loop will materialize and that virus leads to Catch-22:potential renewed spike in infections if consumer rebounds quickly.

2) Earnings momentum to remain negative. In the last two downturns forward EPS fell 20-40%

3) Equity P/Es relative to bond yields and to credit yields are undemanding, but multiples remain hostage to the earnings outlook. At past lows P/E were 10x, vs current 14x.

4) Technicals are oversold, but real money positioning might not be too depressed yet.

JPM Equity strategy

[CashKing 4]

[investidorPT 151]

há 26 minutos, DMP disse:

Bedrock, és tu? ?

parece, não parece !!?? ?

[CashKing 4]

The biggest Bear turned bullish. All-In?

Over the weekend, Wilson was also the author of Morgan Stanley's influential Sunday Start weekly which sets the narrative not only for the key bank themes over the rest of the week, but also is a signpost for Morgan Stanley's clients, and perhaps not surprisingly, Wilson used the podium to expand why on such short notice, he has U-turned from Wall Street's de facto uber bear to one of the biggest, if not most vocal, bulls. 

"This time, we have a potentially much more inflationary combination of an unprecedented targeted fiscal stimulus and possible deregulation of the banks to get the cash into the hands of lower income individuals and small businesses that are inclined to spend it. Such a dramatic shift in US fiscal and monetary policy relative to other regions should lead to a materially weaker dollar, which is ultimately the easiest path to reflation not only for the US, but also the world.

...with the forced liquidation of assets in the past month largely behind us, unprecedented and unbridled monetary and fiscal intervention led by the US, and the most attractive valuation we have seen since 2011, we stick to our recent view that the worst is behind us for this cyclical bear market that began two years ago, not last month." - Morgan Stanley's Wilson link

 

[Mouro Emprestado 639]

há 42 minutos, investidorPT disse:

parece, não parece !!?? ?

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

[CashKing 4]

Credit Suisse: not yet a trough in markets

CS Strategy joins GS, JPM, MS etc in "consensus-calling" for equity markets to turn lower....

"We still have not seen all the preconditions we would expect for a market low. We believe that a consolidation/move down over the next month is likely, but that the old lows will hold. We stick to our targets for the S&P 500 of 2700 for year end"

Credit Suisse Equity strategy

[CashKing 4]

The Oracle cutting losses?

He’s already sitting on a record amount of cash. He knows the collapse is coming? The warning signs are here?

10:49 PM · Apr 3, 2020

[CashKing 4]

What aren’t you buying?

It is difficult to try to buy what has really been hammered. Some of the hospitality stocks and airline stocks, for example, could be a death trap—some of them may never come back. One place to look for opportunity is in companies that will perform in what I expect to be a resurgence in the United States in manufacturing.

But one thing I would caution is that if earnings continue to fall as I expect them to, S&P earnings could get as low as $100 this year. Given the traditional market multiple of about 15 times earnings, that would put the S&P at about 1,500, still about a thousand points lower than we are today. Certainly, we are down from the recent peak of 3,386, so we’ve made a big move, but we still have a pretty good move to make. Investors should probably focus their activity on bonds at this point. link

[Visitante Sapo]

Mas ninguem para o cash?

[CashKing 4]

We are not getting excited before we start breaking out, up or down...for now buy when it feels the world is ending, and sell when everything feels fine. hã? ?

Editado 6 de Abril de 2020 por CashKing

[Virtua 1302]

#prometeram-meos2000ejávamosa2600 ?

#istonãodájeitonenhumassim