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    há 2 horas, Edge disse:

    Bem, de todos os que analisei na altura em que escolhi, os seguintes foram os que achei mais interessantes:

    EPRA: LU1437018838

    SPYJ: IE00B8GF1M35

    IUSP: IE00B1FZSF77

    VNQ: US9229085538

    DPYA: IE00BFM6T921
     

    Haverá outros certamente e todos terão as suas vantagens e desvantagens.

    Analisa e vê qual se encaixa melhor na tuas estratégia (no portfólio)

    Onde é que investes no VNQ? (assumindo que não tens estatuto de investidor profissional)

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    Não sei se já repararam mas acabaram os votos negativos, assim deste modo resolve-se parte do problema, ainda existem outros mas irão ser resolvidos para que se volte a ter um tópico com um ar mais re

    Como pedido pelo @D@vid actualização da minha carteira 4Fundos. A carteira 4 fundos foi feita no final de 2016 por via de programação em R: As performances desde a sua criaçã

    Este fim de semana estive a rebalancear o meu portfolio, partilho convosco. Livrei-me dos bad performers e quero apostar neste Q4 e Q1'22 que se antevê vigoroso. Em Fevereiro fiz uma aposta em US

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    rui_marreiros
    há 6 horas, nOrte disse:

    Aproveito a oportunidade para questionar se o pessoal por aqui investe em REITs?

    Eu estou a escolher empresas solidas e com a area de negocios centrada em grandes cidades de todo o mundo.

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    há 9 horas, Virtua disse:

    Onde é que investes no VNQ? (assumindo que não tens estatuto de investidor profissional)

    Não invisto! 
    Eu desses todos apenas invisto no EPRA.

    Como já disse aqui no fórum, sou adepto da máxima “kiss”, por isso mantenho a minha carteira com o mínimo de títulos possíveis para a estratégia que tenho.

    Todos esses que mencionei, dos que analisei para fazer a escolha, foram aqueles que achei que eram os “melhores”.

    Mas todos têm algum ”defeito”!

    E esse da Vanguard tem esse “grande defeito”. Mas de qualquer maneira, é um dos REIT’s que acompanho!

    • Obrigado 1
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    Apesar de não ser totalmente assunto deste tópico, tenho uma dúvida e gostaria de ter as vossas opiniões.

    Para investir em acções nos EUA, a Degiro apresenta o seguinte comentário:

    "Custos externos incorridos ao manter uma posição num ADR (American Depository Receipt) serão cobrados ao cliente."

    Alguém aqui sabe exactamente quais são estes custos e como podem ser calculados e/ou estimados?

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    rui_marreiros
    há 7 horas, nOrte disse:

    Será que podias deixar algumas referências para os interessados estudarem

    Procura em ETFs. Na maioria deles o American Tower, Prologis, Simon Propriety são REITS com uma boa estrutura financeira.

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    Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in New York:  ”Current levels in equity and credit markets should prove to be good entry points on a 6-12-month horizon. Bear markets end with recessions, they don’t begin with them, making the risk/reward more attractive today than it’s been in years” link

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    A perfect bear market rally may have just concluded. It was set up by oversold conditions and underpinned by a plethora of policy measures from central banks and authorities and by rebalancing of pooled portfolios needing to buy equities to revamp the allocation. Smart money likely sold equities into the final hours of the quarter-end and to us it looks like another leg lower in equities could be coming now. link

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    Refinitiv Lipper Fund Flow Report Newsline

    Fund Flow Reports For The Week Ended 04/01 Are Now Available.

    For the week ended 04/01/2020 ExETFs - All Equity funds report net inflows totaling $6.528 billion, with Domestic Equity funds reporting net inflows of $6.304 billion and Non-Domestic Equity funds reporting net inflows of $0.224 billion...ExETFs - Emerging Markets Equity funds report net outflows of -$0.683 billion...Net outflows are reported for All Taxable Bond funds of -$9.194 billion, bringing the rate of outflows for the $2.907 trillion sector to -$34.581 billion/week...International & Global Debt funds posted net outflows of -$0.787 billion...Net outflows of -$8.467 billion were reported for Corp-Investment Grade funds while High Yield funds reported net inflows of $7.092 billion...Money Market funds reported net inflows of $163.977 billion...ExETFs - Municipal Bond funds report net outflows of -$0.725 billion.                                                                                                                             

     

    Recent Newsline Articles

    Report Period

    Date

    Link Source

    Weekly

    04/01/2020

    Equity Fund Inflows $3.9 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$9.2 Bil
    xETFs - Equity Fund Inflows $6.5 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$17.8 Bil

    Weekly

    03/25/2020

    Equity Fund Outflows -$27.1 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$62 Bil
    xETFs - Equity Fund Outflows -$16.3 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$53.9 Bil

    Weekly

    03/18/2020

    Equity Fund Outflows -$14.8 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$55.9 Bil
    xETFs - Equity Fund Outflows -$16.7 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$42.7 Bil

    Weekly

    03/11/2020

    Equity Fund Outflows -$4.2 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$11.2 Bil
    xETFs - Equity Fund Outflows -$3.2 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$11.9 Bil

    Weekly

    03/04/2020

    Equity Fund Outflows -$20.3 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$8.9 Bil
    xETFs - Equity Fund Outflows -$11.3 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$11.6 Bil

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    Morgan Stanley Cross-Asset Sunday call: next 2 weeks will be more tactically challenging

    1. we are past the beneficial flows around month-end re-balancing

    2. sees potential for renewed funds outflows cross-asset

    3. we are past peak market uncertainty but not past peak macro uncertainty

    4. earnings seasons will be downbeat

    5. US covid news will continue to get worse; coasts still 1-2 weeks to peak; rest of US >40 days left to peak

    MS Sunday cross-asset conf call

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    Everyone thinks they’re a genius in a bull market, but it’s only when prices head south that some people really stand out from the crowd.

    Trying to pick the bottom of a bear market is even more hazardous to your wealth. Being what seems like a long way from the top doesn’t mean you aren’t still just as far from the bottom: A market that has lost half of its value is one that lost a jarring 30% and then another 30% after that.

    If you believe that the damage the Covid-19 pandemic does to the global economy will be on par with the financial crisis and plan to wait until stock valuations reflect that view, you will have to wait. To fetch a similar valuation, stocks might have to drop another 40% or so from here, leaving the Dow Jones Industrial Average below 15000. good read

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    Aqui a grande duvida é se fará novo fundo seja menor ou até maior.

    Na Europa o pior já passou, ainda é critico mas talvez já se observe uma luz no fim tunel

    a america está a entrar agora na fase mais critica.

     

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    The Anatomy of Market Tops

    There’s no formula for forecasting market tops because you’re really trying to predict human behavior, which can’t be done. Trees don’t grow to the sky, but that doesn’t make it any easier for investors to guess when the inevitable mean reversion trade will kick in. Fundamentals matter over the very long term, but in the short-to-intermediate-term, the stock market is a confidence game. The market will top out and experience a bear market when investors lose their nerve for some reason.

     

    Why Valuations Don’t Always Matter in a Bear Market

    I’m sure many investors look at the valuations seen in the 1930s or 1980s and salivate at the potential to buy stocks that cheaply again during the current bear market.

    It could happen. Never say never when it comes to the markets.

    But the profile of a bottom in the stock market is just as confusing as a top.

    Investing would be easier if you could simply buy at predetermined valuation or interest rate levels and sell at other predetermined levels. The real world doesn’t work like that.

    In the past markets have bottomed at relatively low valuation levels, making investing look easy. But they’ve also bottomed when valuations are relatively high.

    The chart below shows the experience of six different investors, who for the sake of simplicity, invested $100 a month into the S&P 500 at different starting dates. link

    1-1.png

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    GS Asia: this is a bounce, not a bottom

    The MXAPJ index rallied 13% in 6 trading days after falling 32% from its mid-January high, raising concern on whether regional markets have bottomed. We think not.

    1. Bear market rallies are common.

    2. Conditions for a trough do not appear fully in place.

    3. Cutting earnings further on worse US/global growth.

    4. Markets have not fully priced the fundamental effects of the virus outbreak. Valuations have compressed but are not at distressed levels.

    image.png.fd4961d90c454a0cad6a45d3fe9512c0.png

    JPM: keep fading the relief bounces,

    Looking for new lows

    1) On growth, we worry that typical recessionary negative feedback loop will materialize and that virus leads to Catch-22:potential renewed spike in infections if consumer rebounds quickly.

    2) Earnings momentum to remain negative. In the last two downturns forward EPS fell 20-40%

    3) Equity P/Es relative to bond yields and to credit yields are undemanding, but multiples remain hostage to the earnings outlook. At past lows P/E were 10x, vs current 14x.

    4) Technicals are oversold, but real money positioning might not be too depressed yet.

    JPM Equity strategy
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