Fundos de Investimento ( Mutual Funds - SICAV )

[Bedrock 137]

Até ao nível dos mercados bolsistas se confirma que para alguns povos orientais o trabalho é quase como uma religião, pois, ao contrário das bolsas dos EUA e da Europa, hoje as bolsas da China e do Japão estiveram em funcionamento.

[rui_marreiros 380]

há 7 horas, Bedrock disse:

porque é que o ativo ouro não tem uma correlação positiva com a subida da taxa de inflação

porque existem outros factores em jogo:

- Taxa de juro;

- a economia dos EUA e do dólar:

- a força do mercado:

etc.

[Bedrock 137]

Big vacuum ideas in a big head gives a low brain density that float on stupid polluted water. (Bedrock)

[Bedrock 137]

Copper: Inducing a Sustainable Future

 

Figure 1: Copper Demand From Electric Vehicles is Poised for Growth

Figure 2: Smart Cities are Expected to Demand Increasing Amounts of Copper

Figure 3: Global Renewable Energy Market is Expected to Continue Growing

https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/2021-03-31/copper-inducing-a-sustainable-future

 

Some Deep-Sea Bacteria Are So Strange, Our Immune Sensors Miss Them

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/some-deep-sea-bacteria-are-so-strange-our-immune-sensors-miss-them/

Editado 5 de Abril de 2021 por Bedrock

[Bedrock 137]

The 2 Most Powerful Forces in Markets

Momentum and Mean Reversion.

The two most powerful forces in markets.

Momentum dictates that what has done the best in the past will continue to do the best and Mean Reversion just the opposite – where what is done the worst will eventually do the best, reverting back to its mean.

That both can be true is one of the great paradoxes in investing.

https://compoundadvisors.com/2021/the-2-most-powerful-forces-in-markets

 

Editado 5 de Abril de 2021 por Bedrock

[Bedrock 137]

A Visual Guide to Human Emotion

 

Inside ESG Ratings: How Companies are Scored

 

How Much Does Big Tech Make Every Minute?

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/

 

Editado 5 de Abril de 2021 por Bedrock

[Vidolz 295]

Mas isto não para de subir? Estou-me a assustar.

[Virtua 1302]

há 18 minutos, Vidolz disse:

Mas isto não para de subir? Estou-me a assustar.

Os 5k estão ali ao virar da esquina 😉

 

[Bedrock 137]

3 Opportunities in a Crowded World

 

Trades seem to be getting more and more crowded, and some investors are concerned that a bubble is being or already has been created. They are wondering whether focus should be shifted away from areas that have seen unusually large appreciations in the recent few quarters and toward less crowded exposures.

To start, we believe the talk of bubbles is premature. Central banks are helping backstop the markets and they probably aren’t finished yet. Generally speaking, when people start talking about bubbles, it’s a while before the bubble bursts. Bubbles are usually predicted far in advance.

What we are seeing, however, is that policy actions related to COVID-19 are boosting asset prices, and this is both good and bad.

The insidious element under the hood is that many of these recent policy actions are actually impacting the longer-term fundamental values of certain markets and market segments via their effects on human capital. Kids aren’t going to school, factories aren’t being used, and restaurants have been closed (and are even going out of business over time). These reductions of capital are ultimately also reductions of value—part of our analysis now is to assess the permanence of these impacts.

Central bank manipulation of asset prices has swamped fundamentals.

But this creates opportunities, many of which lie outside the United States. The United States has been one of the more aggressive major world economies in providing immediate stimulus (cash in hand) instead of deferred stimulus (such as tax breaks), loans, and grants. And immediate stimulus has the greatest immediate effect on asset prices. Deferred stimulus also has an impact, but it is typically delayed, while loans and grants generally don’t affect asset prices at all. The nature of this kind of stimulus has dampened the influence of fundamentals in places such as the United States.

The situation is similar elsewhere: central bank manipulation of asset prices has swamped fundamentals, and it will probably continue to swamp fundamentals for the foreseeable future.

Fundamental value can be thought of as a kind of gravitational pull on price. It’s sometimes slow, but it’s inexorable. Often, investors don’t even notice it is happening, but over time, prices do eventually revert to value. However, if this gravitational pull is weaker and slower than is typical because of stimulative impacts, how should investors adapt?

Some investors adapt by mining recent data to figure out what’s been working and invest in a similar fashion. And that causes shifts in performance—growth may outperform value, for example, or one sector (such as information technology) might materially outperform another (such as energy).

We saw it in the 1980s before the Black Monday crash; in the 1990s before the tech bubble burst; and in the 2000s going into the global financial crisis. And today we have perhaps the most extreme situation that I can think of in the history of human civilization. The Federal Reserve (Fed) and other global central banks were already manipulating asset prices, and COVID-19 has only served to further accelerate this behavior.

For example, COVID-19 has accelerated digitization, and the tech-oriented markets such as China, Taiwan, Korea, the United States, and the Netherlands have been supported by policy actions. Equities in some of those markets (especially the United States) are particularly expensive on a purely fundamental basis, so where should investors look for value?

Asia-Pacific is one place to look for value, because the world is shifting from the concept of nation-state to the concept of civilization.

We believe Asia-Pacific (APAC) is one place to look for value, because the world is shifting from the concept of nation-state to the concept of civilization. Countries used to compete; now groups of countries compete.

The United States and Western countries are one core civilization; China is another. Other civilizations exist, but they will have to ultimately align themselves with one of those two poles.

Asia will likely align itself with China, which should remain an engine of growth. And that growth should also occur not just within China, but throughout the region, thanks to the network effects.

Within APAC, we find Singapore, Australia, Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia to be the most attractive on a fundamental basis. Importantly, the region as a whole should benefit from China’s growth.

Mutually assured destruction … is the most stable game theory structure that exists.

We believe there is also an opportunity in emerging markets relative to developed markets, generally speaking, thanks to their diverging situations.

Developed markets benefited for 60-plus years from a demographic dividend and the relative stability of the Cold War. While the era of mutually assured destruction was in many ways a scary one in which to live, it turns out that it is the most stable game theory structure that exists.

Now, the developed world has to address very significant social welfare commitments, and at the same time demographics and productivity aren’t there to provide support. So, where does the support come from? We believe it will come from emerging markets, via increasing migration, trade of goods and services, and capital flows. These things have been set back a bit recently, but should resume over time.

Currency is an unsung hero.

The last opportunity is a bit of an unsung hero: currency. It is commonly said that currencies can’t be managed based on fundamentals. But for the past 30 years, we have actively managed currencies in just such a manner.

When valuing asset markets, one has to forecast cash flows, come up with a discount rate, and discount the cash flows. While value can be calculated from these inputs, if the estimates aren’t arrived at in a robust and thoughtful manner, the value might very well be inaccurate.

Now think about valuing currencies. We believe that relative purchasing power parity determines real equilibrium exchange rates. That is, the price of a basket of goods should remain constant across two currencies, after adjusting for the relative inflation differences in the two countries. When a real exchange rate deviates significantly from equilibrium, economic forces will be exploited and push the exchange rate back toward equilibrium.

Here’s a simple example: a resident of El Paso, Texas, has a choice to buy a car in the United States for $50,000 or drive across the border and buy it in Mexico for an equivalent $25,000. That resident is most likely going to buy the car in Mexico. This involves buying Mexican pesos and selling U.S. dollars.

Now imagine this being done on a much larger scale across dozens and dozens of currencies on a global basis.

The point is that there’s not typically a lot of uncertainty associated with currency value. It’s fundamentally driven and is less affected than asset prices by the type of policy actions that are occurring today.

So, where are we seeking value in a crowded world? We are focusing on Asia, we’re focusing on emerging markets, and we’re focusing on currencies.

https://active.williamblair.com/multi-asset/brian-singer/3-opportunities-in-a-crowded-world/

 

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há 26 minutos, Vidolz disse:

Mas isto não para de subir? Estou-me a assustar.

Um investidor que se assusta com as subidas do seu investimento é o mesmo de alguém abrir um negócio e ficar assustado porque está a vender de mais...

[5coroas 1402]

há 46 minutos, Vidolz disse:

Mas isto não para de subir? Estou-me a assustar.

Os cruzeiros estão hoje a bombar...já têm ordem para começar as passeatas em Junho/Julho desde que tenham toda a tripulação e clientela vacinada. Estou a contar com as minhas ações na Norwegian para me pagarem as minhas passeatas das férias. Upa, upa, que se faz tarde. 

[Bedrock 137]

World Economy Risks ‘Dangerously Diverging’ Even as Growth Booms

Much will depend on how fast countries can inoculate their populations from COVID-19.

 

The world economy is on course for its fastest growth in more than a half century this year, yet differences and deficiencies could hold it back from attaining its pre-pandemic heights any time soon.

The U.S. is leading the charge into this week’s semi-annual virtual meeting of the International Monetary Fund, pumping out trillions of dollars of budgetary stimulus and resuming its role as guardian of the global economy following President Joe Biden’s defeat of “America First” President Donald Trump. Friday brought news of the biggest month for hiring since August.

China is doing its part too, building on its success in countering the coronavirus last year even as it starts to pull back on some of its economic aid.

Yet unlike in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the recovery looks lopsided, in part because the rollout of vaccines and fiscal support differ across borders. Among the laggards are most emerging markets and the euro area, where France and Italy have extended restrictions on activity to contain the virus.

“While the outlook has improved overall, prospects are diverging dangerously,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said last week. “Vaccines are not yet available to everyone and everywhere. Too many people continue to face job losses and rising poverty. Too many countries are falling behind.”

 

The result: It could take years for swathes of the world to join the U.S. and China in fully recovering from the pandemic. By 2024 world output will still be 3% lower than was projected before the pandemic, with countries reliant on tourism and services suffering the most, according to the IMF.

The disparity is captured by Bloomberg Economics’ new set of nowcasts which shows global growth of around 1.3% quarter on quarter in the first three months of 2021. But while the U.S. is bouncing, France, Germany, Italy, the U.K. and Japan are contracting. In the emerging markets, Brazil, Russia and India are all being clearly outpaced by China.

For the year as whole, Bloomberg Economics forecasts growth of 6.9%, the quickest in records dating back to the 1960s. Behind the buoyant outlook: a shrinking virus threat, expanding U.S. stimulus, and trillions of dollars in pent-up savings.

Much will depend on how fast countries can inoculate their populations with the risk that the longer it takes the greater the chance the virus remains an international threat especially if new variants develop.

Bloomberg’s Vaccine Tracker shows while the U.S. has administered doses equivalent to almost a quarter of its people, the European Union has yet to hit 10%, while rates in Mexico, Russia and Brazil are below 6%. In Japan the figure is less than 1%.

“The lesson here is there is no trade-off between growth and containment,” said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief economist at the Bank of Singapore Ltd.

Former Federal Reserve official Nathan Sheets said he expects the U.S. to use this week’s virtual meetings of the IMF and World Bank to argue that now is not the time for countries to pull back on assisting their economies.

It’s an argument that will be mostly directed at Europe, particularly Germany, with its long history of fiscal stringency. The EU’s 750 billion-euro ($885 billion) joint recovery fund won’t start until the second half of the year.

The U.S. will have two things going for it in making its case, Sheets said: A strengthening domestic economy and an internationally respected leader of its delegation in Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, no stranger to IMF meetings from her time as Fed Chair.

But the world’s largest economy could find itself on the defensive when it comes to vaccine distribution after accumulating massive supplies for itself. “We will hear a hue and cry emerge during these meetings for more equal access to vaccinations,” said Sheets, who is now the head of global economic research at PGIM Fixed Income.

And while America’s booming economy will undoubtedly act as a driver for the rest of the world by sucking in imports, there could also be some grumbling about the higher market borrowing costs that the rapid growth brings, especially from economies which aren’t as healthy.

“The Biden stimulus is a two edged sword,” said former IMF chief economist Maury Obstfeld, who is a now senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. Rising U.S. long-term interest rates “tighten global financial conditions. That has implications for debt sustainability for countries that went deeper into debt to fight the pandemic.”

JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief economist Bruce Kasman said he hasn’t seen such a wide gap in 20 to 25 years in the expected out-performance of the U.S. and other developed countries when compared with the emerging markets. That’s in part due to differences in distribution of the vaccine. But it’s also down to the economic policy choices various countries are making.

Having mostly slashed interest rates and started asset-purchase programs last year, central banks are splitting with some in emerging markets beginning to hike interest rates either because of accelerating inflation or to prevent capital from flowing out. Turkey, Russia and Brazil all raised borrowing costs last month, while the Fed and European Central Bank say they won’t be doing so for a long time yet.

Rob Subbaraman, head of global markets research at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Singapore, reckons Brazil, Colombia, Hungary, India, Mexico, Poland, the Philippines and South Africa all risk running overly-loose policies.

“With major developed market central banks experimenting on how hot they can run economies before inflation becomes a problem, emerging market central banks will need to be extra careful to not fall behind the curve, and will likely need to lead, rather than follow, their developed market counterparts in the next rate hiking cycle,” said Subbaraman.

In an April 1 video for clients, Kasman summed up the global economic outlook this way: “Boomy type conditions with quite wide divergences.”

https://www.wealthmanagement.com/investment-strategies/world-economy-risks-dangerously-diverging-even-growth-booms

Editado 5 de Abril de 2021 por Bedrock

[Bedrock 137]

há 1 hora, Vidolz disse:

Mas isto não para de subir? Estou-me a assustar.

É o efeito da mola que estava bastante comprimida e que na ausência de uma força de compressão, começa a expandir-se até ser novamente comprimida. Quando o tracionamento de expansão da mola ultrapassa o limite de resistência do material metálico da mola, a mesma deforma-se e depois dá-se a cisão do material (a bolha do mercado acionista rebentou). 

Editado 5 de Abril de 2021 por Bedrock

[Bedrock 137]

The 4 Types of Robinhood Traders

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/04/the-4-types-of-robinhood-traders/

[Bedrock 137]

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/04/talk-your-book-the-psychology-of-bitcoin/

[Bedrock 137]

 

[Patanisca 1223]

há 2 horas, Vidolz disse:

Mas isto não para de subir? Estou-me a assustar.

O USD/EUR está a descer, e bem.

[JM_ 33]

Uma questão relacionada com o report de mais-valias no IRS. O que está correcto segundo as normas: Opção A (duas linhas) ou B (três linhas)?

 

 

Opção A

 

Opção B

[-------- 2582]

há 3 minutos, JM_ disse:

Uma questão relacionada com o report de mais-valias no IRS. O que está correcto segundo as normas: Opção A (duas linhas) ou B (três linhas)?

 

 

Opção A

 

Opção B

Estão todas certas, mas ainda podias fazer outra coisa, uma vez que é tudo do mesmo país podes colocar apenas numa linha, basicamente para o fisco o que interessa é que o total esteja certa, porque o resto eles até já lá têm.

Colocas a data de aquisição mais antiga, e a data de venda mais recente, e os valores totais.

[JM_ 33]

45 minutes ago, D@vid said:

Estão todas certas, mas ainda podias fazer outra coisa, uma vez que é tudo do mesmo país podes colocar apenas numa linha, basicamente para o fisco o que interessa é que o total esteja certa, porque o resto eles até já lá têm.

Colocas a data de aquisição mais antiga, e a data de venda mais recente, e os valores totais.

Obrigado. A minha pergunta era numa perspectiva "picuinhas" para perceber qual seria a opção mais correcta by the book. Não há muita informação disponível nesse sentido.

Sobre a questão de colocar numa única linha a aquisição mais antiga, a venda mais recente e o valor total, não sei se será totalmente correcto num cenário muito específico em que seja preciso aplicar correcção monetária. Imagina que estás a resgatar títulos antigos e recentes...

 

 

Editado 5 de Abril de 2021 por JM_

[rui_marreiros 380]

 

[superkinas 181]

https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/mercados/bolsa/detalhe/wall-street-ignora-subida-de-impostos-e-renova-recordes

 

apesar subida dos impostos principalmente para as tecnologicas, hoje tivemos bom dia nas americas :), amanha em principio deve-se alastrar europa e na madrugada china mas nunca se sabe, tudo é muito volatil.

è viver o momento

[Bedrock 137]

há 1 hora, JM_ disse:

Obrigado. A minha pergunta era numa perspectiva "picuinhas" para perceber qual seria a opção mais correcta by the book. Não há muita informação disponível nesse sentido.

Sobre a questão de colocar numa única linha a aquisição mais antiga, a venda mais recente e o valor total, não sei se será totalmente correcto num cenário muito específico em que seja preciso aplicar correcção monetária. Imagina que estás a resgatar títulos antigos e recentes...

Citação

Sobre a questão de colocar numa única linha a aquisição mais antiga, a venda mais recente e o valor total, não sei se será totalmente correcto num cenário muito específico em que seja preciso aplicar correcção monetária. Imagina que estás a resgatar títulos antigos e recentes...

Tu tens razão na questão que levantas.

Eu só tive e tenho FI estrangeiros e na quase totalidade em USD, mas sempre preenchi o Anexo G (mais-valias) do IRS e não o Anexo J (rendimentos no estrangeiro) e a AT sempre me aceitou as Declarações de IRS.

Portanto, eu vou referir-me ao Anexo G. No quadro a preencher relativos à Aquisição e Realização há datas com dia, mês e ano, sendo que estas datas são importantes por causa da regra FIFO e do cambial USD/EUR. Por exemplo, no dia 24 de dezembro passado, eu queria fazer um resgate que me gerava mais-valias para serem deduzidas por um valor de menos-valias que tinha tido há 5 anos atrás, e para anular este valor de menos-valias e cumprir a regra FIFO, isso implicou 4 movimentos/4 linhas  com 4 datas de subscrição e respetivos valores no quadro da Aquisição e no quadro da Realização as  respetivas 4 datas são todas iguais, pois o resgate para anular as menos-valias foi único e no mesmo dia, só que por causa da regra FIFO esse resgate total implicou preencher 4 resgates parciais ou lotes em função dos diferentes lotes temporais de subscrição sequencial, com datas e respetivos valores subscritos. As datas também interessam para o cambial USD/EUR.

A regra FIFO dá esta chatice e assim para um único resgate implicou 4 linhas/4 movimentos, só implicaria 1 linha se o valor do resgate único fosse <= que o valor da subscrição mais antiga, como não foi o caso, o meu valor do resgate implicou 4 lotes de subscrição (quando eu falo em lotes, falo em atos de subscrição com determinadas datas, quantidades de UPs e respetivos valores subscritos nessas datas).

[P2P Money Maker 250]

há 2 horas, rui_marreiros disse:

 

Essa pessoa diz que o País da Fonte para efeito dos dividendos no Anexo J é o País "de onde vem o dinheiro". Eu diria que é o país onde está listada a acção, mas se ele quer andar a colocar como País da Fonte o Brasil e outras geografias exóticas, be my guest.

[-------- 2582]

há 3 horas, JM_ disse:

Obrigado. A minha pergunta era numa perspectiva "picuinhas" para perceber qual seria a opção mais correcta by the book. Não há muita informação disponível nesse sentido.

Sobre a questão de colocar numa única linha a aquisição mais antiga, a venda mais recente e o valor total, não sei se será totalmente correcto num cenário muito específico em que seja preciso aplicar correcção monetária. Imagina que estás a resgatar títulos antigos e recentes...

 

 

Não existe correção monetária nos fundos mobiliários infelizmente, quanto muito poderá existir nos fundos imobiliários mas nem nesses penso que exista.

Todos os anos os bancos enviam os movimentos para as Finanças, eles têm as informações iguais às que recebes todos os anos nas declarações de movimentos mobiliários, não sei se fará grande problema colocar tudo numa linha ou em várias linhas, porque eles já têm essas informações.

Nem quero imaginar um tipo que todos os anos faz centenas de movimentos ter de fazer centenas de linhas, seria algo Hercúleano.