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    há 1 hora, Visitante Antonio Damasio disse:

    Acho que a resposta vem confirmar o que digo, ou seja, alem de inundar o topico com as suas leituras, ainda adiciona este tipo de respostas agressivas, parece que está sempre a procurar confusão e trocas de argumentos sobre assuntos que nada dizem ao tópico.

    O que vai acabar por acontecer é q o topico vai deixar de ter interesse para muitos.. porque para virem para aqui chamar burros e outros nomes nao faz muito sentido.

    Podias começar por deixar de parasitar o tópico e ir apresentando as tuas leituras e interpretações, vá lá, não sejas preguiçoso ... Eu percebi muito bem o teu objetivo, sendo que tu és tão Visitante como eu sou o @D@vid, depois eu é que sou o agitador ...

    Editado por Bedrock
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    Não sei se já repararam mas acabaram os votos negativos, assim deste modo resolve-se parte do problema, ainda existem outros mas irão ser resolvidos para que se volte a ter um tópico com um ar mais re

    Este fim de semana estive a rebalancear o meu portfolio, partilho convosco. Livrei-me dos bad performers e quero apostar neste Q4 e Q1'22 que se antevê vigoroso. Em Fevereiro fiz uma aposta em US

    Como pedido pelo @D@vid actualização da minha carteira 4Fundos. A carteira 4 fundos foi feita no final de 2016 por via de programação em R: As performances desde a sua criaçã

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    ja estou registado e não te vou dar votos negativos.. a minha única sugestão, é que haja um topico especifico para partilhar as tuas leituras..

    lá está, é mesmo isso, apresentar  "leituras e interpretações", e não apenas despejar copias de artigos.

    Será que parasita não é quem anda pelos foruns em busca de atenção?

    Editado por ManuelD
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    @Vidolz, dá lá o teu outlook de ultra curto prazo sobre o seguimento do rácio EUR/USD. Será que é hoje ou amanhã que vai quebrar o nível de 1.17? Cá para mim, que sou um para-leigo em forex, o nível de 1.17 vai ser quebrado antes da Páscoa ... Aleluia. 

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    há 23 minutos, Bedrock disse:

    @Vidolz, dá lá o teu outlook de ultra curto prazo sobre o seguimento do rácio EUR/USD. Será que é hoje ou amanhã que vai quebrar o nível de 1.17? Cá para mim, que sou um para-leigo em forex, o nível de 1.17 vai ser quebrado antes da Páscoa ... Aleluia. 

    @Vidolz, nem tu interages comigo, qualquer dia, devido ao meu mau feitio, só vou interagir com os pássaros do @5coroas. Porquê os pássaros e não o dono? Porque é mais fácil perceber os pássaros, que tomam vinagre de maçã, do que o dono. Mas atenção, não é qualquer dono que dá vinagre aos seus pássaros para controlar bactérias, melhorar a sua digestão e dar-lhe um aporte suplementar de vitaminas e minerais. 

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    Eu peço desculpa ao Visitante Antonio Damasio e afins, mas, de vez em quando, eu vou continuar a postar os artigos completos e não só os respetivos links, pois tenho um contrato secreto com o Doutor das Finanças em como me paga uma determinada importância por linha postada, e como em média os links não ocupam mais do que uma linha, isso seria um tremendo downside para os meus profits aqui no tópico. 👿

     

    Don’t Look Now, But Bond Seasonality Is Turning Bullish

    The seasonal pattern of stock market returns has made “Sell in May” a common refrain, but we find that seasonal patterns also exist in the bond market. The summer months, which tend to see weaker-than-average stock returns, also tend to deliver stronger-than-average returns for bonds.

    The chart below shows the monthly change in 10-year Treasury yields relative to the trend of each year. After all, a 10 basis point monthly decline in yields wouldn’t tell you much about seasonality in a year that saw yields decline 120 basis points. Focusing on data during the 2010-2019 expansion (to avoid recession distortions), we find that 10-year yields tended to rise during the September-March period and fall during the April-August period, relative to the trend of each year.

    The cumulative median yield change during the bullish months was -30 basis points, versus +30 basis points in the bearish months. We also see a bullish skew in the distribution, with the largest monthly yield decline during the bullish months reaching -59 basis points, compared to +27 basis points for the largest increase.

    Most Bullish Seasonal Period For Treasurys Runs From April Through August

    Monthly basis point change in 10-year yields relative to full-year trend, 2010-2019

    The Fed's Optimistic Neutral Rate Projection Is Almost Fully Priced In

    Source: Guggenheim Investments, Haver Analytics. Data as of 3.23.2021. Note: Monthly average constant maturity 10-year Treasury yield. Interquartile range is shown here as middle four observations out of ten.

    This seasonal pattern also shows up in the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate (Agg), the most widely used benchmark for the broad U.S. bond market. The scatter plot below shows annualized total returns and volatility for the Agg since 2000, broken into different economic regimes and seasonal patterns. Unsurprisingly, Agg returns have been the highest in weak economic regimes. In strong economic regimes, which is where we find ourselves now, the strong seasonal period for bonds (April-August) delivered significantly higher total returns than the weak seasonal periods.

    The combination of attractive valuations, oversold technical conditions, and the start of a strong seasonal period for bonds means now is an opportune time to be long duration.

    Bond Index Returns Across Economic Regimes and Seasonal Periods

    257614ba825a4eb402d2dde0f18a7263.png

    Source: Guggenheim Investments, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg. Data as of 3.22.2021. Note: Total returns for the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. Economic regimes identified ex ante by proprietary Guggenheim model. Strong bond seasonals are April-August. Weak seasonals are September-March.

    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/03/29/dont-look-now-but-bond-seasonality-is-turning-bullish

     

     

    Editado por Bedrock
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    How Active Mutual Funds Use ETFs

    ETF use among actively managed mutual fund portfolios

    What are the research questions?

    As of 2017, and in spite of the documented negative relationship between fund performance and use of ETFs, approximately one-third of US-domiciled, actively managed mutual funds held ETFs at one time or another. Active managers justifiably make use of ETFs to improve their portfolio management operations. But is their use for cash management, liquidity, improved returns, or risk reduction? The answer depends on the purpose as well as the type of ETF: benchmarked or non-benchmarked.  Using a sample of US-domiciled active mutual funds observed between 2004 and 2015, the authors of this research are able to tease out the unique benefits that the use of benchmarked vs. non-benchmarked ETFs provides.

    1. Does the use of ETFs by mutual funds improve liquidity management?
    2. Does the use of benchmark ETFs reduce portfolio risk?
    3. Does the use of non-benchmark ETFs increase fund return performance?
    4. Does the use of non-benchmark ETFs reduce portfolio risk?

    What are the Academic Insights?

    1. YES. Mutual Funds use benchmark ETFs to reduce cash, especially if it is a result of large fund inflows.  The exchange of cash holdings earning the risk-free rate, with shares of an ETF earning the benchmark return, reduces tracking error and cash drag significantly. The assumption in this research is that benchmark ETFs are highly liquid and mutual funds prefer those exhibiting the greatest liquidity. This proposition is confirmed. The data shows that benchmark ETFs tend to be larger, exhibit higher trading volume, and smaller bid-ask spreads. Of those benchmark ETFs, mutual funds select those that are the largest and most heavily traded and exhibit the smallest bid-ask spreads.  The preference for highly liquid ETFs on the part of mutual funds is consistent with their need for managing cashflow within the fund. As shown in Table 6 below, the use of benchmark ETFs is associated with a reduction of cash flows, along the lines of a 13.47% decline in the average cash position during the relevant month—where the average ETF user maintains a cash position of 2.97%.   Large flows into the fund are related to ETF trading. In general, for each 1% increase (decrease) in fund flows, the authors observe a .40% (.06%) decrease (increase) in cash holdings.  However, if the fund holds benchmark ETFs, those numbers are changed by 40%.  Quite a change in magnitude.  The beneficial effects are obvious: inflows are invested immediately at the benchmark return.  There was no similar impact for mutual funds using non-benchmark ETFs.
    2. YES. Tracking error is indeed reduced for mutual funds holding benchmark ETFs—monthly tracking error is 1.41% vs. 1.53% for those holding non-benchmark ETFs.  This is a substantial difference on an annualized basis, approximately 2% lower.  Although at those monthly rates the differences in annualized tracking error are swamped by the magnitude of approximately 22% to 24%. Assuming (annual TE = monthly TE * Sqrt(250)) of the risk measure itself.  Can it really be that large when annualized? Whew.
    3. NO.  The authors report no empirical relationship between the use of non-benchmark ETFs and mutual fund returns. Several types of returns are calculated including benchmark excess returns, style (either size or book-to-market) excess returns, objective excess returns (when matched with the CRSP fund objective), raw returns, and as a four-factor (Fama-French, Carhart) alpha. Fund performance was unaffected in either a positive or negative direction, with the exception for micro-cap objective mutual funds where a weak improvement in objective excess returns and four-factor alpha was observed.
    4. YES. A number of comparisons of return volatility were made including (1) Mutual funds using non-benchmark ETFs vs. mutual funds that use no ETFs at all; (2) Mutual funds that use non-benchmark ETFs vs the average of all non-ETF users; and (3) Non-benchmark users vs. benchmark ETF users. A significant reduction in monthly volatility was observed in all three cases.  For example, in the first case, a reduction from 4.85% to 4.48% in monthly volatility was reported.  Non-benchmark users exhibited lower volatility than non-user mutual funds and benchmark users. The results provide direct evidence for the notion that mutual funds exhibit a diversification benefit from using non-benchmark ETFs as opposed to an improvement in returns. The authors provide evidence that it is specifically the use of non-benchmark ETFs that is key. With non-benchmark stocks, the mutual fund obtains exposure to stocks not held by the fund, while holding benchmark ETFs simply increases exposure to stocks already included in the mutual fund portfolio.

    Why does it matter?

    This paper contributes to the literature on the use of passive investment vehicles, like ETFs, by clarifying the range of benefits available to active managers from their use.  The specific examination of improved cash management, enhanced performance, and improved diversification are all cases that justify the utilization of ETF products.

    The most important chart from the paper

    2021-03-21-22_19_21-MFundsUseETFs_JFM.pdf-and-2-more-pages-Personal-Microsoft%E2%80%8B-Edge-1200x718.png

    Abstract

    It is well known that actively managed mutual funds use exchange-traded funds (ETFs), although current research has yet to establish the benefits of these positions. Focusing on ETF type, we investigate whether or not ETFs impact portfolio management. Funds using benchmark ETFs see reductions in cash holdings, particularly during periods of large flows, and lower tracking error. In contrast, non-benchmark ETF positions improve the performance of large mutual funds investing in micro-cap stocks while also reducing portfolio risk. While studies caution against the extensive use of ETFs, we conclude that ETFs can provide tangible benefits for funds when considering the type of ETF used.

    https://alphaarchitect.com/2021/03/29/how-mutual-fund-managers-use-etfs/

    Editado por Bedrock
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    há 2 horas, Bedrock disse:

    @Vidolz, dá lá o teu outlook de ultra curto prazo sobre o seguimento do rácio EUR/USD. Será que é hoje ou amanhã que vai quebrar o nível de 1.17? Cá para mim, que sou um para-leigo em forex, o nível de 1.17 vai ser quebrado antes da Páscoa ... Aleluia. 

    Pois o USD tá a subir, mas os meus stocks estão a descer portanto nem ganho nem perco, fico na mesma :D 

    Não vou dar a minha opinião sobre o que vai acontecer porque sinceramente não faço ideia xD

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    há 1 minuto, Vidolz disse:

    Pois o USD tá a subir, mas os meus stocks estão a descer portanto nem ganho nem perco, fico na mesma :D 

    Não vou dar a minha opinião sobre o que vai acontecer porque sinceramente não faço ideia xD

    Ao não fazeres ideia, já tens alguma ideia. Apesar disso, eu acho que tenho mais a aprender com as tuas jogadas tipo GameStop do que com supostos Visitantes tipo Antonio Damasio ... O mundo não é perfeito e nem sempre capitaliza a massa cinzenta cerebral, tal como o mercado acionista, em que os passivos dizem que é um jogo de soma zero, mas eu questiono: se é um jogo de soma zero, como é que esse jogo capitaliza sempre no muito longo prazo? Estou a ver que tenho que ir novamente para a Escola aprender probabilidade estatística, matemática aplicada, investigação operacional e otimização, etc.

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    Disciplined Systematic Global Macro Views

    "Disciplined Systematic Global Macro Views" focuses on current economic and finance issues, changes in market structure and the hedge fund industry as well as how to be a better decision-maker in the global macro investment space.

    Persuasion and dealing with different decision-makers - The Miller-Williams decision-making style matrix

    Investment decision processes come in many forms. There is the lone wolf portfolio manager that has the ability to make decisions without input or approval from others. There will be constraints on his behavior but not explicit collaboration. The team or committee approach is often employed by larger money management firms that have longer investment horizons. This is more likely to occur with asset allocation decisions. Finally, there is the quantitative approach where a systematic model will generate the investment decisions. Of course, a committee or PM will likely oversee the decisions from the model. what is not often discussed with group decisions is the process of persuasion to achieve consensus. 

    Any group decision requires persuasion. Unfortunately, building consensus requires understanding the minds of the other decision-makers in the room. This is a skill or a consideration not generally discussed.  Nevertheless, there has been interesting research on describing or classifying the decision-makers that will have to be sold to reach a conclusion. This classification scheme can be condensed in the Miller-Williams decision-making style matrix. 

    Any good presenter should be aware of the different types of decision-makers in his audience; however, this means investment decisions will be driven by a narrative and not just the output from a model. 

    Screen%2BShot%2B2021-03-08%2Bat%2B5.38.55%2BPM.png

    The most common decision-maker is the follower at 36% of the Miller-Williams survey group total. Followers are looking for others to make a decision or focused on proven methods. They will not generally think outside the box. Controllers at 9% need to be just given the details in a very logical way. Thinkers at 11% need to be given lots of facts and theory to work through many alternative scenarios. They along with controllers are going to be more risk averse but will likely improve the depth of decision-making. Skeptics at 19% are not going to be open to new ideas and will be looking for creditability and endorsement from others. Charismatics represent 25% of most key decision-makers and will need simple visuals with a focus on results although they will show strong enthusiasm. They will ask whether this idea will make money, and can you provide an easy explanation? 
     
    My guess is that many hedge funds will be dominated by one or two types of decision-makers but not likely followers or skeptics. Pension fund boards will likely be dominated by followers and skeptics, like the majority of decision-makers in the survey sample.
     
    Anticipating the thinking of the audience for any decision approval is a critical skill in gaining support for ideas within a firm and for selling a strategy to clients. These are considerations that are not normally considered when just developing model results. 
     
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    A conclusão que uma mente muito limitada como a minha tira, é que as tuas palavras e a maneira como estás no forum mostram bastante de ti..e do quanto precisas de atenção e protagonismo..

    Talvez seja melhor quem nao tem ideias nem pensamentos estar calado, do que simplesmente andar a copiar artigos de outros sites para aqui.. mas toda a tua indignação começa so porque sugeri que tivesses um tópico especifico para "artigos/leituras/.. um outro nome sugestivo e inteligente da tua autoria"..

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    Bubble Deniers Abound to Dismiss Valuation Metrics One by One

     

    Everywhere you look, there’s a valuation lens that makes stocks look frothy. Also everywhere you look is someone saying don’t worry about it.

    The so-called Buffett Indicator. Tobin’s Q. The S&P 500’s forward P/E. These and others show the market at stretched levels, sometimes extremely so. Yet many market-watchers argue they can be ignored, because this time really is different. The rationale? Everything from Federal Reserve largesse to vaccines promising a quick recovery.

    How convinced should anyone be when dismissing the message of metrics like these? To be sure, both the market and economy are in uncharted waters. It’s possible -- perhaps likely -- that old standards don’t apply when something as random as a virus is behind the stress. At the same time, many a portfolio has been squandered through complacency. Market veterans always warn of fortunes lost by investors who became seduced by talk of new rules and paradigms.

    “Every time markets hit new highs, every time markets get frothy, there are always some talking heads that argue: ‘It’s different,’” said Don Calcagni, chief investment officer of Mercer Advisors. “We just know from centuries of market history that that can’t happen in perpetuity. It’s just the delusion of crowds, people get excited. We want to believe.”

    Robert Shiller is no apologist. The Yale University professor is famous in investing circles for unpopular valuation warnings that came true during the dot-com and housing bubbles. One tool on which he based the calls is his cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio that includes the last 10 years of earnings.

    While it’s flashing warnings again, not even Shiller is sure he buys it. At 35, the CAPE is at its highest since the early 2000s. If that period of exuberance is excluded, it clocks in at its highest-ever reading. Yet in a recent post, Shiller wrote that “with interest rates low and likely to stay there, equities will continue to look attractive, particularly when compared to bonds.”

    Another indicator raising eyebrows is called Tobin’s Q. The ratio -- which was developed in 1969 by Nobel Prize-winning economist James Tobin -- compares market value to the adjusted net worth of companies. It’s showing a reading just shy of a peak reached in 2000. To Ned Davis, it’s a valuation chart worth being wary about. Still, while the indicator is roughly 40% above its long-term trend, “there may be an upward bias on the ratio from technological change in the economy,” wrote the Wall Street veteran who founded his namesake firm.

    Persuasive arguments also exist for discounting the signal sent by the “Buffett Indicator,” a ratio of the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks divided by gross domestic product. While it recently reached its highest-ever reading above its long-term trend, the methodology fails to take into consideration that companies are more profitable than they’ve ever been, according to Jeff Schulze, investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments.

    “It’s looked extended really for the past decade, yet you’ve had one of the best bull markets in U.S. history,” he said. “That’s going to continue to be a metric that does not adequately capture the market’s potential.”

    At Goldman Sachs Group Inc., strategists argue that however high P/Es are, the absence of significant leverage outside the private sector or a late-cycle economic boom points to low risk of an imminent bubble burst. While people are shoveling money into stocks at rates that have signaled exuberance in the past, risk appetite is rebounding after a prolonged period of aversion, according to the strategists, who also cite low interest rates.

    “Today is a very different situation -- I don’t think we’ve got a broad bubble,” Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at the firm, said in a recent interview on Bloomberg Television. “Given the level of real rates, where they are, it’s still likely to be broadly supportive for equities versus bonds.”

    Another rationale employed to dismiss certain valuation metrics is the earnings cycle. Corporate America is just emerging from a recession, with profits forecast to stage a strong comeback. The strong outlook for profits is why many investors are giving similarly stretched valuations the benefit of the doubt. Trading at 32 times reported earnings, the S&P 500 looks quite expensive, but with income forecast to jump 24% to $173 a share this year, the multiple drops to about 23.

    The valuation case becomes more favorable should business leaders continue to blow past expectations. For instance, if this year’s earnings come in at 16% above analyst estimates, as they did for the previous quarter, that’d imply a price-earnings ratio of less than 20. While that exceeds the five-year average of 18, Ed Yardeni is not troubled by what he calls “the New Abnormal.”

    “Valuation multiples are likely to remain elevated around current elevated levels because fiscal and monetary policies continue to flood the financial markets with so much free money,” said the founder of Yardeni Research Inc. He predicts the S&P 500 will finish the year at 4,300, about an 8% gain from current levels.

    Still, it’s hard to ignore the risks to underlying assumptions. While rock-bottom rates underpin many of the arguments, this year has shown that the Fed still is willing to let longer-term interest rates run higher. And betting on huge upside earnings surprises is risky too -- it’s rare to see a 16% beat historically. Before last year, earnings had exceeded estimates by an average 3% a quarter since 2015.

    “This happens in every bubble,” said Bill Callahan, an investment strategist at Schroders. “It’s: ‘Don’t think about the traditional value metrics, we have a new one.’ It’s: ‘Imagine if everyone did XYZ, how big this company could be.’”

    Returns of 2%

    Valuations are never useful market-timing tools because expensive stocks can get more expensive, as was the case during the Internet bubble. Yet viewed through a long-term lens, valuations do matter. That is, the more over-valued the market is, the lower the future returns. According to a study by Bank of America strategists led by Savita Subramanian, things like price-earnings ratios could explain 80% of the S&P 500’s returns during the subsequent 10 years. The current valuation framework implies an increase of just 2% a year over the next decade, their model shows.

    To Scott Knapp, chief market strategist of CUNA Mutual Group, abandoning standard valuation measures because the environment has changed places investors in “pretty sketchy territory.” Talk of watershed moments rendering traditional metric irrelevant is a signal, he says.

    “That’s usually an indication we’re trying to justify something,” he said.

    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2021/03/30/bubble-deniers-abound-to-dismiss-valuation-metrics-one-by-one

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    há 20 horas, Visitante srInvestor disse:

    Porque não ha um topico para o bed adcionar a sua informação?

    È que este forum são so artigos a vulso..

    Eu conheço trabalho e progressão a pulso, agora artigos "a vulso" não sei o que são ... deve ser um novo tipo de artigos. 

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    há 11 minutos, magina13 disse:

    Concordo em grande parte.

    Sempre respeitando os users do forum, que sigo ha alguns anos mas nao me tinha registado ate ha relativo pouco tempo.

    No entanto visto de "fora" e mais uma vez, com todo o respeito por TODOS os users , acho que ha um certo exagero nos posts em ingles, que a mim nao me afeta e ate acho util, mas gostaria de ver o topico mais organizado.

    Isto dos votos na minha opinião ( gostos e não gostos) nao acho que seja importante ao ponto de se criarem atritos por causa disso. 

    Penso que o forum existe para trocar ideias e dar opiniões sobre este ou aquele investimento, esta ou aquela empresa, esta ou aquela decisão, partilhar conhecimento ! e não andar a medir forças do tipo eu tenho mais gostos que tu! 

    Ha foruns nao nacionais em que nao ha espaço sequer a este tipo de discussão,  contacta-se a administração do forum e pronto, assunto arrumado. Avança-se. Continua-se com o fundamental , partilha de experiencias, conhecimento , opiniões, etc.

    abraço a todos.

     

    Não te queres oferecer como voluntário para ajudares o @D@vida organizar melhor o tópico?

    Tu tens 11 meses de registo no forum e ainda só apresentaste 12 posts no tópico. Não achas que está na altura de contribuires mais para o fórum, para depois teres um subjacente moral para poderes criticar?

    Como é que uma pessoa com uma produção de 1 post/mês, vem criticar a produção alavancada do tópico?

    Como é que um motor interno de aspiração atmosférica vem criticar um motor com uma alavancagem de ar/oxigénio por turbo compressão?

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    há 44 minutos, D@vid disse:

    Se bem recordo, há algumas páginas atrás disseste que colocas o teu fundo de emergências num fundo de mercado monetário. 

    Vês vantagens em relação aos depósitos a prazo e os certificados do IGCP?

     

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    há 42 minutos, Louie disse:

    Se bem recordo, há algumas páginas atrás disseste que colocas o teu fundo de emergências num fundo de mercado monetário. 

    Vês vantagens em relação aos depósitos a prazo e os certificados do IGCP?

     

    Apenas por uma questão de comodidade pessoal, o fundo costuma render pelo menos um pouco mais que os DPs e se levantar não "perco" a rentabilidade ao contrário de um DP que costuma ser penalizado com a perda de juros gerados, quanto aos certificados são uma óptima alternativa, mas como falei não me é tão cómodo.

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    • -------- changed the title to Fundos de Investimento ( Mutual Funds - SICAV )

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