Obrigações

[PNogueira 15]

Bushy. Obrigado pelas ISIN e pela explicação, quanto ao curso acho que era útil, o que eu nao sei é se vai continuar a ser rentável investir em obrigações, pois cada vez vão render menos na minha opinião, e se repararem o pessoal neste momento para conseguir ainda uma boa rentabilidade começa a apostar em mercados com risco muito mais elevado, Chipre Grécia etc. (Portugal)

[Bushy 61]

o problema é que nos habituamos a yields acima dos 10% e agora estão nos 6 ou 7%, no meu caso só tenho uma obrigação que devo levar até à maturidade é a esfg que comprei a 75 e tenho um cupão real de 9%, esta semana se comprar esfg ficarei com um cupão real de 7% neste caso vou esperar a valorização de 10% e vendo. Quanto ao fim do bem bom das obrigações, ainda compensa em relação aos DP´s, e alternativa a obrigações é difícil nos produtos que existem, porque risco não aconselho neste momento.

[Bushy 61]

já fiz a minha escolha em principio vou para a noruega e para o chipre, noruega pq são senior e as contas da empresa não me assustam e chipre pelo que li é um Portugal pequeno mas com um divida de 70% do pib logo melhor neste aspecto

[Bushy 61]

para quem pensar em entrar neste barco tambem, decobri que os incrementos são de 1000€ secalhar esqueço o chipre e vou por tudo nesta

March 09 -

Overview

-- Norway-based forest product group Norske Skogindustrier ASA has renegotiated its debt covenants and improved its liquidity position through operating cash flow generation and asset disposals.

-- We continue to view the group's liquidity profile as less than adequate, albeit improved.

-- We are revising the outlook on the group to stable from negative, while affirming the 'B-' long-term and 'B' short-term corporate credit ratings.

-- The outlook is stable, primarily reflecting our assumption that the group can maintain or improve its liquidity position over the near term, supported by positive free operating cash flow generation.

Rating Action

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services revised its outlook on Norway-based forest product group Norske Skogindustrier ASA (Norske Skog) to stable from negative. At the same time, we affirmed the 'B-' long-term and 'B' short-term corporate credit ratings on the group.

Rationale

The outlook revision reflects Norske Skog's improved liquidity position, following a reset of its financial covenants at the end of 2011, as well as positive free operating cash flow generation in the fourth quarter of the year. It also reflects our assumption of improved operating performance in 2012 compared with 2011.

Our current base-case forecast assumes rather flat volumes and selling prices, and input costs which on average are slightly lower than in 2011. We believe that this will translate into full-year EBITDA of Norwegian krone (NOK) 1.7 billion-NOK1.8 billion. This would be considerably better than 2011, when EBITDA was negatively affected by a fire at one of the group's mills as well as restructuring charges. We still see material downside risks to our base case, however, primarily relating to exchange rate fluctuations, macroeconomic pressures on demand and selling prices, and input cost volatility. Free operating cash flow in our base case amounts to about NOK300 million for 2012. This also factors in capital expenditures of about NOK500 million, as well as substantial cash restructuring charges compensated to an extent by a corresponding release of working capital. We forecast adjusted funds from operations of about 10%, a level which we believe is commensurate with the ratings.

The ratings continue to reflect the oversupplied, cyclical, and structurally impaired nature of the publication-paper industry, severe pressure on input costs, and the group's weak credit measures. These constraints are only partly counterbalanced by Norske Skog's good positions in the global newsprint markets, paper selling price momentum, and an improved liquidity profile. We view the group's business risk profile as weak and its financial risk profile as highly leveraged. As of Dec. 31, 2011, Norske Skog's adjusted debt amounted to an estimated NOK9 billion.

Liquidity

The short-term rating is 'B'. We continue to view Norske Skog's liquidity profile as 'less than adequate', though bordering on 'adequate', meaning that we do not exclude a reassessment to 'adequate' within the next six months. In our opinion, the group's liquidity sources are likely to cover its short term liquidity needs by a ratio of about 1.2x. We believe however, that the liquidity position remains vulnerable to operating cash flow fluctuations. We also believe that the group's near-term liquidity needs are concentrated in the first half of 2012.

We understand that the group has repaid a NOK655 million bond that matured at the beginning of March, 2012. In our estimate, remaining cash balances of about NOK600 million, as well as projected free operating cash flows, provide a liquidity position which is sufficient to meet the group's liquidity needs over the near term. Although the group currently has access to an unused EUR140 million revolving credit facility (RCF), we do not fully factor this into our liquidity analysis, as we believe that covenant headroom may decline as test levels become more stringent over time.

We currently estimate Norske Skog's liquidity position to be supported by the following resources as of Dec. 31 2012:

-- Cash and equivalents of NOK1.2 billion. This amount will have been reduced due to a debt maturity of NOK655 million in March, 2012. To sustain the group's operations we consider a cash position corresponding to about 3% of annual revenue to be necessary. This corresponds to NOK500 million-NOK600 million.

-- Free cash flow generation in 2012 amounting to about NOK300 million. We believe, however that cash flow in the first half of 2012 will be negatively affected by cash restructuring charges, potential working capital build-up, and interest payments in the second quarter.

-- In addition, the group had NOK1.1 billion available under its unused RCF, as of Dec. 31, 2011, although we consider future availability uncertain because we expect covenant headroom to remain tight over the near to medium term, partly due to increasingly stringent test levels. The group reset its covenants at the end of 2011 however, providing additional headroom for the moment.

Furthermore, although we do not factor further asset disposals into our liquidity assessment, we do not exclude such disposals in 2012.

These liquidity resources would, in our opinion, likely sufficiently cover the group's remaining maturities in 2012, amounting to about NOK300 million (of which the group expects to roll over about NOK150 million). Debt maturities in 2013 amount to about NOK40 million.

Recovery analysis

Norske Skog's EUR449 million unsecured notes due 2017 (initially EUR500 million), $171 million unsecured notes due 2015, $200 million unsecured notes due 2033, and EUR138 million unsecured notes due 2016 (initially EUR150 million) are rated 'B-', at the same level as the corporate credit rating. The recovery rating is '4', indicating our expectation of average (30%-50%) recovery in an event of payment default.

The recovery rating on the unsecured notes is supported by the group's significant asset base, itself underpinned by its well-established distribution channels. The recovery ratings are constrained by Norske Skog's material prior-ranking debt facilities (including the unsecured but guaranteed RCF), which include pension obligations and structurally senior debt.

To calculate recoveries, we simulate a default scenario. In our view, the key risks for Norske Skog relate to its exposure to volatile raw material price inputs (pulp) along with challenging market conditions. Accordingly, our simulated default scenario envisages ongoing weaknesses as a result of the highly competitive and cyclical publication paper industry and the challenging market environment (in terms of cost inflation, exchange rate movements, and weak pricing power).

In this hypothetical scenario, EBITDA declines to about NOK1,200 million--a level insufficient to meet all fixed charges--and results in default in 2014, triggered by the group's inability to refinance its RCF and NOK925 million unsecured notes maturing that year. At that point, we assume that the RCF will be fully drawn. At the hypothetical point of default, we calculate the group's stressed enterprise value at about NOK5.7 billion. After deducting priority liabilities of about NOK2.5 billion (comprising enforcement costs, local debt, 50% of the group's pension deficit, the RCF, and six months of prepetition interest), we arrive at a net stressed value of about NOK3.3 billion, which explains the 30%-50% recovery expectations.

Outlook

The stable outlook reflects our assumption that Norske Skog can maintain or improve its liquidity position over the near term, supported by positive free operating cash flow generation.

The ratings could come under pressure over the near to medium term as a result of renewed pressure on operating performance if this were to cause the group's liquidity position to deteriorate. This would likely result from negative free operating cash flows due to deteriorating operating conditions.

We currently see limited upside rating potential in the near term. A starting point for us to consider a positive rating action would be a more robust liquidity profile.

Related Criteria And Research

-- 2008 Corporate Criteria: Analytical Methodology, April 15, 2008

-- Criteria Methodology: Business Risk/Financial Risk Matrix Expanded, May 27, 2009

-- Standard & Poor's Revises Its Approach To Rating Speculative-Grade Credits, May 13, 2008

-- 2008 Corporate Criteria: Ratios And Adjustments, April 15, 2008

-- Criteria Guidelines For Recovery Ratings On Global Industrials Issuers' Speculative-Grade Debt, Aug. 10, 2009

-- Rating Implications Of Exchange Offers And Similar Restructurings, Update, May 12, 2009

-- Key Credit Factors: Criteria For Rating The Forest Products Industry, Dec. 11, 2009

-- Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Sept. 28, 2011

Ratings List

Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action

To From

Norske Skogindustrier ASA

Corporate Credit Rating B-/Stable/B B-/Negative/B

Senior Unsecured B-

Recovery Rating 4

[minsk 6]

Nao quero arrefecer o entusiasmo, mas segundo esta companhia produz papel para jornais, "newsprint paper" que tem vindo a sofrer reducao de uso devido a cada vez maior transicao dos jornais para plataforma electrónica.

Já este ano a NewPage, uma competidora americana abriu falencia....

No entanto é uma multinacional Norueguesa e a segunda maior do mundo nesse segmento.

[Bushy 61]

Nao quero arrefecer o entusiasmo, mas segundo esta companhia produz papel para jornais, "newsprint paper" que tem vindo a sofrer reducao de uso devido a cada vez maior transicao dos jornais para plataforma electrónica.

Já este ano a NewPage, uma competidora americana abriu falencia....

No entanto é uma multinacional Norueguesa e a segunda maior do mundo nesse segmento.

obrigado pelo reparo, mas estive a ler uma noticia que matou a minha certeza no dia 3 de novembro baixaram o rating  da divida senior logo estou aki a pensar em ir para as esfg2019 o problema é que o mercado não tem para venda diz o bes mas que esta a procura dizem eles.

[minsk 6]

obrigado pelo reparo, mas estive a ler uma noticia que matou a minha certeza no dia 3 de novembro baixaram o rating  da divida senior logo estou aki a pensar em ir para as esfg2019 o problema é que o mercado não tem para venda diz o bes mas que esta a procura dizem eles.

Vendo as minhas a 95 )

[Bushy 61]

eheheh se vender a 89 eu compro, espero conseguir a 89 ou 90, fui é burro deveria ter comprado logo 2 quando comprei a 75

[fnunes 0]

Boa tarde,

O que acham desta?

http://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php/Bonds?isin=XS0564563921

É uma empresa com uma dívida de curto prazo grande (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-02/alcatel-lucent-posts-smaller-loss-than-analysts-predicted.html), mas a empresa por si só será uma garantia?

[elitegroup 11]

Eu ando a namorar esta. https://konto.flatex.de/onlinebanking-flatex-wpinfo/paperInfoFormAction.do?doPopulate=true&searchString.text=XS0473176658&searchButton.x=1&searchButton.y=1

Do pouco que sei é uma telecom Húngara que é detida pela Deutsche Telekom.

[Bushy 61]

A magyar telekom esta com tendencia negativa e a sua situação não deve ser nada famosa porque o país esta a passar um mau bocado, mas só analisei a tendencia.

A lucent ja andei a namorar no passado e é uma opção vou pedir cotação ao banco se conseguir a 94 ainda compro

[elitegroup 11]

Pois está, mas 60% serem da Deutsche Telekom dá uma certa segurança.

Qual é essa da lucent?

Tenho que me decidir, tou com liquidez, vendi ontem as do BES.

[Bushy 61]

penso que neste momento apostas seguras são: esfg2019 mas estão escassas e o VN é 100k as da Lucent parecem boas, quanto as da magyar telekom vou investigar a coisa.

[Bushy 61]

vi muito por alto e a magyar telekom está a ter lucro e tem uma divida totalmente controlada, talvez esta com este preço devido a situação do país. Mas mandem bitaques quem sabe se não é uma solução.

[elitegroup 11]

9.5% de cupão é apetecível. Neste momento é difícil encontrar divida sénior a este preço. Já confirmaram o pagamento de dividendos para 2013.

[Bushy 61]

9.5% de cupão é apetecível. Neste momento é difícil encontrar divida sénior a este preço. Já confirmaram o pagamento de dividendos para 2013.

Já confirmaram o pagamento de dividendos para 2013. é uma afirmação ou uma pergunta, eu vou falar com um amigo meu Hungaro para ver o que ele diz sobre a empresa depois digo qq coisa.

[elitegroup 11]

afirmação.

[PNogueira 15]

9.5% de cupão é apetecível. Neste momento é difícil encontrar divida sénior a este preço. Já confirmaram o pagamento de dividendos para 2013.

E qual é o montante mínimo de subscrição ?

Nao consigo ver.

[elitegroup 11]

50.000. http://www.luxnext.com/en/sign_info/XS0473176658_158513.xhtml

[PNogueira 15]

Mas tenho bastante receio do mercado húngaro?

E 50k nao arrisco.

[PNogueira 15]

Bushy. Demoras.te muito tempo para vender as do BCP 2014 ?

Acho que Tb vou vender as minhas aos 95%

[elitegroup 11]

Dá 30K ao preço atual.

[afer 24]

Amigo Bushy o que é que quer dizer com incrementos de 1000 euros relativamente ás do Chipre

[PNogueira 15]

Realmente 9,5% é muito tentador

[elitegroup 11]

Amigo Bushy o que é que quer dizer com incrementos de 1000 euros relativamente ás do Chipre

É quando por exemplo o  mínimo de subscrição é 50K, mas a partir daí pode-se comprar 51K, 52K, etc incrementos de 1000.